North Dakota Poll shows Trump the strong favorite among GOP voters in Doug Burgum’s home state

'Nationalized' news coverage of the GOP nominating race is working against Burgum even in his home state, an opinion research analyst said

An independent poll of North Dakota voters shows that Donald Trump is the overwhelming choice among Republicans, who favor the former president over Gov. Doug Burgum by a margin of more than four to one.

The results are from the newly launched North Dakota Poll, a public opinion surveying initiative of the North Dakota News Cooperative of which Forum Communications Co. is a member. The poll by WPA Intelligence of Washington, D.C., sampled 517 voters by telephone from Nov. 5 to 7.

Among North Dakota Republican voters, the poll showed Trump had the support of 54%, followed by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, with 14%, Burgum with 12% and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and Trump’s United Nations ambassador, with 10%.

Trump’s lead over Burgum commanded a daunting margin of 42 percentage points among North Dakota GOP voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%.

“It seems that the voters are not really letting anyone else in the game when it comes to who they want their nominee to be,” said Brian Lunde, an opinion research analyst for the North Dakota News Cooperative.

“Nearly all of Trump’s support is made up of strong supporters,” he said. “Only 4% of his 54% are considered ‘leaners.’ Clearly, they are just not entertaining Burgum as a presidential contender.”

That might not be fair, Lunde added, “but they have drawn a clear line and are not considering him for president.”

Of those surveyed, 45% identified themselves Republicans. Respondents were asked, “At this point in the election, who do you support to be our next president?”

Among independent voters, who make up 34% of the electorate, based on how poll respondents identified their political affiliation, Trump’s support is more than double Burgum’s, with 32% supporting Trump and 14% Burgum.

Democrats, who are 17% of the North Dakota electorate, are strongly behind President Joe Biden, who commands 74% of his party’s support, with Burgum drawing support from 4% of Democrats and Trump lagging with 1%.

Among voters overall in North Dakota, the poll showed Trump supported by 36% of voters, Biden with 19%, Burgum with 11%, others with 13% and 12% undecided.

Despite his name recognition and popularity among North Dakota voters as a two-term governor, Burgum finds himself in a state nominating contest that has been “nationalized” by national news coverage, Lunde said.

In the drumbeat of national coverage, Trump is consistently portrayed as the prohibitive favorite among Republican voters, trailed distantly by DeSantis, Haley and others, with Burgum among those far behind.

“The voters here have been nationalized,” Lunde said. “They’re only reacting to what the national coverage is. The voters have put them in a silo.”

He added: “I was surprised, just because they’re not considering him for president,” Lunde said of Burgum’s position as the third-ranking choice among GOP voters in his home state.

Also, Burgum has failed to break out of the pack in a crowded field because he hasn’t been the bombastic style of candidate, eagerly emphasizing divisive “culture war” issues that have become so popular among Republican voters in the age of Trump, Lunde said.

“We live in the United States of entertainment,” he said.

Instead, Burgum’s message has centered on the economy, energy and national security — all issues that would appeal to traditional Republican voters before Trump came along, Lunde said.

“He doesn’t fit the environment,” he said of Burgum.

Forum Communications Co. sponsored the presidential preference question in the inaugural findings of the North Dakota Poll, which also surveyed public opinion on several other issues.

Those results will be released next week by the North Dakota News Cooperative, which has called the North Dakota Poll “the only regular, non-partisan statewide survey of eligible North Dakota voters and consumers.”

“The North Dakota Poll will be the most comprehensive, cost-effective and accurate polling ever conducted in the state of North Dakota,” said Steve Andrist, co-chairman of the North Dakota News Cooperative. “We developed this new service to guide our own news coverage, but also want to make it available to others.”

The North Dakota Poll is intended to serve as an “omnibus” survey providing media organizations, trade associations, businesses, government agencies and other interested groups with an affordable opportunity to survey the citizens of North Dakota on their own issues, the news cooperative said.

The news cooperative touts the collaborative approach, which allows sharing common costs, as a cost-effective way of conducting statewide polls.

Dateline:

FARGO, N.D.